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Post-Tropical Cyclone BERYL (Text)

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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
 
THE ORGANIZATION OF BERYL HAS DEGRADED THIS AFTERNOON...TO THE POINT
WHERE IT IS DIFFICULT TO STILL CLASSIFY IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED...
LEAVING A CLOUD PATTERN THAT MORE RESEMBLES AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z
WERE T1.0 OR LESS.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL SURFACE CENTER/PRESSURE MINIMUM OF BERYL HAS BECOME
ELONGATED ALONG A SW/NE AXIS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A COASTAL
TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. AS A RESULT OF THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES...BERYL
IS CONSIDERED POST-TROPICAL...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED
AT THIS TIME.
 
BERYL HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVERTOOK THE CYCLONE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/18.
DESPITE THE LOSS OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...OR PERHAPS BECAUSE
OF THEM...THE CYCLONE HAS DEEPENED TODAY. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER LOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.
 
EVEN THOUGH BERYL HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONALLY TO GALE FORCE...AND HIGH SURF
ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONSULT HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 34.9N  76.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  31/0600Z 36.2N  73.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  31/1800Z 37.8N  68.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  01/0600Z 39.1N  63.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  01/1800Z 39.3N  57.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/1800Z 39.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN
 
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