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Tropical Depression BERYL (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
 
BERYL IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION IN A FEW BANDS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND SO IT STILL QUALIFIES AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR
PRESENTATION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DEGRADED.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
AS WELL AS RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE WESTWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION HAS ENDED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/2. 
THE STRONGEST WINDS...ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KT...ARE OVER WATER
AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING.  A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE BERYL NORTHEASTWARD VERY SHORTLY...LIKELY TAKING
THE CENTER BACK OVER WATER WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  FOR AN
ACCELERATING SYSTEM...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ESSENTIALLY BLENDS THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE...WITH MORE
WEIGHT PLACED ON THE SLOWER ECMWF.
 
BERYL WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGH AS
IT ACCELERATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS...IN WHAT SHOULD STILL BE A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.

A FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORT-WAVE IS SHOWN
OVERTAKING BERYL IN ABOUT 66 HOURS IN THE GFS...AND IN ABOUT 84
HOURS IN THE ECMWF.  BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE AND THE EXPECTED COOLER
WATERS BELOW THE CYCLONE BY THAT TIME...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
CALLED FOR ON DAY THREE...FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 30.9N  83.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 31.5N  82.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/0600Z 32.4N  80.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/1800Z 33.7N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  31/0600Z 35.5N  74.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 38.0N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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