ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 100 AM PST FRI NOV 25 2011 IT IS HARD TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON IR IMAGES THIS MORNING. A SEQUENCE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WELL DETACHED FROM A FEW PATCHES OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. THIS WEAKENING ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SOONER. THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF CONVECTION BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 13.4N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 13.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 13.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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