ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 700 PM PST THU NOV 24 2011 THE STRUCTURE OF KENNETH APPEARS TO BE DETERIORATING. A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND ELONGATED...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45-55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS 41 KT. THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. KENNETH IS NOW MOVING OVER A SOUTHWARD-PROTRUDING COLD TONGUE OF WATER BETWEEN 25 AND 26C...AND THIS COLDER WATER SHOULD MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE IS INGESTING DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. KENNETH IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WITH DISSIPATION POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WERE REQUIRED IN THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/8 KT. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE ERODED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH...AND THIS HAS TEMPORARILY SLOWED THE CYCLONE DOWN. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KENNETH SHOULD TAKE ON AN ACCELERATED WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH ITS WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION PHASES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NEAR THE TVCE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 13.4N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 13.4N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 13.4N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 13.4N 131.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 13.6N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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