ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 700 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011 THE CENTER OF KENNETH HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT IT WAS LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...BUT THERE HAS BEEN NO OTHER RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO HELP DETERMINE THE CENTER LOCATION. THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF WINDS OF 35 TO ALMOST 40 KT. GIVEN THE KNOW LOW BIAS OF THIS INSTRUMENT...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 50 KT...USING A BLEND OF DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS AND THE ASCAT DATA. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT DIAGNOSES LIGHT SHEAR BETWEEN THE 850 AND 200 MB LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LAYER OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW THAT IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OVER KENNETH...AS ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS SHEAR ADJUSTMENT PREDICTOR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THEN BECOME STRONGER IN 36-48 HOURS. KENNETH WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SSTS BELOW 26C AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AFTER THAT. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 3-4 DAYS. KENNETH APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED BACK TOWARD THE WEST...WITH A MOTION OF 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING ON A WESTWARD TRACK WHILE IT WEAKENS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF BOTH THE MORE SOUTHERN INITIAL POSITION AND THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 13.5N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 13.7N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 13.9N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 14.0N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 14.0N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 14.0N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:21 UTC