ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 700 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KENNETH CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE...ALTHOUGH AT A SLOWER PACE THAN SEEN EARLIER TODAY. A JUST-RECEIVED SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION BY WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 50 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB AND THE WEAKER AMSU/SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND SHEAR...DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND ENCROACHING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WESTWARD TURN AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER WITH THE FORWARD SPEED...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW TRACK FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE REMNANTS OF KENNETH ARE LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORMING NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 13.5N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.0N 120.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 14.7N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 14.9N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 15.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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