ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 100 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS RECENTLY BECOME EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 1702 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT... AND COOLER SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KENNETH TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 4. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD OCCUR SOONER. KENNETH HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/10. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 13.2N 118.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 13.7N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 14.6N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 14.8N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 15.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:21 UTC