ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 700 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT NOAA-18 AMSU-B OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BOTH SHOW AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS INDUCED A MORE ASYMMETRIC PATTERN WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. AS A RESULT...A COMPROMISE OF THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80 KT. WEAKENING OF KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES COOLER WATERS AND MOVES WITHIN A MORE STABLE/DRIER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITHIN 3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HR AND DISSIPATION IN 5 DAYS...SIMILAR TO THE VARIABLE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST...275/8. KENNETH IS MOVING WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HR CAUSING KENNETH TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BEYOND THE 48 HR PERIOD...SOME RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A TURN BACK TO TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY A MIRROR IMAGE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SOUTH OR TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODEL AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 12.6N 117.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 13.1N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 13.8N 120.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 14.3N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 14.6N 124.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 15.0N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 16.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN NNNN
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