ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 700 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. A SYMMETRIC RING OF EYEWALL -70 TO -75C CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAS DEVELOPED AROUND A CLOUD-FREE EYE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T6.5 SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AS KENNETH HAS MORE THAN LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. AFTERWARD...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY FASTER THAN FORECAST BEYOND THE 36 HR PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIABLE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE LEFT OF DUE WEST...265/11. KENNETH IS MOVING WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A SERIES OF MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN 2 DAYS. NEAR DAY 4...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD INFLUENCE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE HWRF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 12.7N 113.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 12.9N 115.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 13.3N 117.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 13.9N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 14.4N 120.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 15.1N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 15.5N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 16.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN NNNN
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