ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011 700 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011 KENNETH CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT 20-N MI WIDE EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY... SURROUNDED BY A NEARLY CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE CYCLONE ALSO HAS GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND FAIR OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY. SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING OR MAINTENANCE OF INTENSITY THROUGH AT LEAST 3 OR 4 DAYS...THE INTENSITY OF KENNETH WILL BE GOVERNED BY CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENTAL THERMODYNAMICS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH KENNETH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26.5C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHILE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES WESTWARD. AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...KENNETH PROBABLY HAS A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE MAKES IT A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THAT TIME AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...MAINLY DUE TO THE CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION. KENNETH HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH STILL EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 15N. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BEING ERODED BY TWO SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLIES ON DAYS 2 AND 3. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THAT PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS LESS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND 36 HOURS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND HWRF STILL HAVE A DEEPER VORTEX MOVING MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE CYCLONE FASTER AND MOVES IT QUICKLY WESTWARD IN LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A SCENARIO BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...AND ENDS UP A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE TVCE CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS IS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THOSE TIMES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 13.0N 111.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 13.0N 113.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 13.1N 115.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 13.4N 117.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.0N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 15.5N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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