ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122011 800 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011 SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM NOW LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE THE DEPRESSION IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS QUITE WEAK AND THE INTENSITY IS SET GENEROUSLY TO 25 KT. WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING ABOUT 040/3. A VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.6N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 16.8N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:20 UTC