ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122011 800 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH SEVERAL NEW CLUSTERS RECENTLY FORMING NEAR THE CENTER. THE MEXICAN RADAR FROM MOZOTAL DEPICTS A CURLY CUE-SHAPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENT ROTATING AROUND A BROADER CIRCULATION...WITH A COUPLE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...IT HAS LIMITED TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MOVING INLAND. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE DEPRESSION POSSESSES A LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON-TYPE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST WITHIN 48 HOURS AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. THERE COULD BE SOME SHORT- TERM WOBBLES OF THE TRACK IF THE CENTER REFORMS OR DUE TO TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS. OUTSIDE OF THOSE VARIATIONS...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN. A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW INDUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS FORECAST TO CARRY THE CYCLONE ON A NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD COURSE AFTER IT MOVES INLAND. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.1N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 15.6N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/1200Z 15.9N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/0000Z 15.9N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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