ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122011 200 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND CURVATURE NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AT AROUND 04Z SHOWED THE CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTION AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED AT THIS TIME. THE DEPRESSION HAS LIMITED TIME TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND...AND ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN...AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOSING DEFINITION BY 48 HOURS IN AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN MEXICO TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4...AS THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE STEERING FLOW WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 14.7N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 15.2N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/1800Z 15.9N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:20 UTC