ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IRWIN HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME LESS DEFINED. FOR THESE REASONS...IRWIN NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER BURST OR TWO OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE LOW IT SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT...THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION WITHIN 72 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BOTH SHOW DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON IRWIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 14.1N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 17/1200Z 14.5N 108.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 14.6N 109.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 14.4N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 14.1N 109.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:20 UTC