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TROPICAL STORM JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
1500 UTC SAT OCT 08 2011
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 2 31 NA
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 8 27 NA
TROPICAL STORM 39 36 19 12 21 15 NA
HURRICANE 61 64 81 88 69 27 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 58 52 49 35 29 10 NA
HUR CAT 2 2 10 22 29 21 9 NA
HUR CAT 3 X 1 9 20 14 7 NA
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 5 4 2 NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 80KT 90KT 95KT 30KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31) X(31)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 22(26) 19(45) X(45)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 36(49) 16(65) X(65)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 12(29) X(29)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 35(46) 17(63) X(63)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) X(28)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20(25) 10(35) X(35)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 7(22) X(22)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 3(15) 2(17) X(17)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 17(30) X(30)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:18 UTC