ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011 RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE HAS DEGRADED WITH THE EYE NO LONGER CLOSED AND ONLY THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL INTACT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB....AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE AGAIN DECREASED. THE WIND SPEED IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 100 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS T- AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. JOVA WILL BE MOVING OVER 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS WATER AND REMAIN IN MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR UNTIL LANDFALL. NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO CALLS FOR A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN INTENSITY...AND JOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND JOVA COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED BELOW. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030/5 KT. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE UPDATED TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE EARLIER TRACK THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 17.5N 105.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 18.6N 105.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 19.9N 105.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1800Z 21.3N 105.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0600Z 22.2N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/0600Z 23.5N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:18 UTC