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Hurricane JOVA (Text)

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HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT JOVA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPED ALL
THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS
SHOWS AN EYE AND EYEWALL FORMING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...SO JOVA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON
THIS ADVISORY.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 075/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE PACIFIC NORTH
OF JOVA AND IRWIN EAST OF 130W.  THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER
JOVA SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE FORECAST TRACK
BRINGS JOVA NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS AND
OVER MEXICO BY 96 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL.  THE TRACK
LIES SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
 
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST JOVA TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD
ALLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CALL FOR THE
CYCLONE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO.  ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90
KT WHILE THE LGEM MODEL SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 70-75 KT. 
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE
GFDL/HWRF AND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 16.0N 110.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 16.0N 109.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 16.1N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 16.3N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 17.4N 105.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 18.4N 105.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 22.0N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
 
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