ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT JOVA REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE SHOWING ABOUT 10 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE ORGANIZATION ARE UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. JOVA IS GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 350/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 130W. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE AREA TO SLOWLY STEER JOVA IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 3-4 DAYS TIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND LANDFALL TIME BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS-BASED GUIDANCE AND THE SLOWER ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 72 HOURS AND WELL INLAND AT 96 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. IF THIS VERIFIES...JOVA SHOULD START TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST JOVA TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65-75 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE THE HWRF AND GFDL FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SHOW LIGHT SHEAR FROM 24-72 HOURS...SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHY SHIPS AND LGEM DO NOT SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR JOVA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO. AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 15.3N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 15.9N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 16.4N 109.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 16.9N 108.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 17.4N 107.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 19.0N 105.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 21.5N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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