ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 800 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011 IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN EARLIER 85-GHZ SSM/I MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM FNMOC SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE THE DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL 37-GHZ CHANNEL WAS LESS CONCLUSIVE. THE CENTER HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT IS LOCATED EVEN FARTHER EAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 30 KT AND...GIVEN THE LACK OF BANDING FEATURES IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE IMAGES...THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE HFIP INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERLY PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES AS IT NEARS MEXICO. THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL SHOW A MORE GRADUAL RECURVATURE THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER. THEREAFTER IT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE TVCE CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE AVERAGE TRACK ERROR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN AT THAT TIME FRAME IS ABOUT 175 TO 225 MILES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 11.5N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 12.2N 107.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 13.1N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 14.2N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 15.2N 109.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 18.8N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 20.0N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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