ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2011 HILARY STOPPED PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...AND A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB... AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH DECAYING EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES... HILARY COULD PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS OVER 23-26C WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR HILARY TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOUR OR SO. THE REMNANT LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT. NOW THAT IT IS BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE REMNANT LOW OF HILARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA. THEREAFTER...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG 32N...AND THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN WESTWARD FROM 48 HOURS THROUGH ITS DISSIPATION. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO CONDUCT A RESEARCH MISSION IN HILARY LATER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 20.4N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 21.3N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1200Z 22.3N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z 23.0N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1200Z 23.3N 122.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1200Z 23.0N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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