ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2011 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF HILARY HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW LARGELY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. AN EYE IS OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...BUT NOT WELL DEFINED IN THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. HILARY SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM BY 36 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS VERTICAL SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND REACHING ABOUT 30 KT BY 48 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AFTER THAT TIME. HILARY HAS NOW TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOWED A LITTLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/06. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 36 HOURS AS HILARY IS PULLED NORTHWARD BY AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE HURRICANE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE LEFT FOR THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD A CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...BUT STILL LIES WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS...WHICH REMAINS AN OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 17.1N 117.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.5N 117.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 18.4N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 19.4N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 20.7N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 23.0N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 25.0N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z 26.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:16 UTC