ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...AND CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE WARMING AT THIS TIME. T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING BUT STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS...AND SOON THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING...AND GREG COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 4 DAYS OR EARLIER. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. GREG WILL LIKELY BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EMBEDDED IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST GREG TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 2 DAYS. GREG JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF CLARION ISLAND...AND DATA FROM A MEXICAN NAVY WEATHER STATION WAS VERY HELPFUL IN TRACKING THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 19.1N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 19.5N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.5N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 19.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 18.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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