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Hurricane EUGENE (Text)

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HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EUGENE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  SPIRALING DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BECOME QUITE PROMINENT...AND THERE ARE NOW HINTS OF AN EYE FORMING
IN THE INFRARED CHANNEL.  THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE ESTIMATES BECAUSE OF THE
IMPROVED CENTRAL FEATURES...AND EVEN THIS WIND SPEED ESTIMATE COULD
BE CONSERVATIVE.
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE INITIAL MOTION OF 290/13.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A RATHER LARGE CHANGE IN THE PREDICTED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN A COUPLE DAYS.  WHILE THERE IS A STILL A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF 120W....ENOUGH RIDGING IS
PRESENT IN ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO NOT ALLOW EUGENE TO GAIN
SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE.  EVEN THE REGIONAL MODELS...HWRF/GFDL...NO
LONGER SHOW MUCH OF A NORTHWARD TURN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A KNOT OR TWO
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL ENDS UP WELL WEST OF THE
LAST FORECAST.  THE MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET...ARE STILL FASTER THAN THE NEW FORECAST...AND IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF FUTURE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE STILL
NEEDED.
 
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS EUGENE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SO FAR THIS SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH DISRUPTION...AS SEEN BY THE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATER TOMORROW...WHICH WILL LIKELY INITIATE A WEAKENING
TREND.  EUGENE WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH COLDER WATERS BY DAY 3... WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  GIVEN THE RECENT TREND IN
ORGANIZATION...THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE UPPER EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE EARLY ON...AND IS BLENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.  GIVEN THE RECENT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF EUGENE
BRIEFLY BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 13.8N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 14.3N 109.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 15.0N 111.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 15.8N 113.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 16.6N 115.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 18.0N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 19.5N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 21.0N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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