ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2011 DORA HAD LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AROUND 0000 UTC BUT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED A SMALL BURST ABOUT 60 N MI SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMMS ADT. DORA IS NOW OVER 21-22C WATER AND WILL BE UNABLE TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. DORA IS STILL MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 320/8. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NEAR-SURFACE CENTERS OF CIRCULATION. THIS NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HOLD ON TO AN AREA OF VORTICITY AT 850 MB FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...THEY ALL SHOW THE 10-METER WIND CIRCULATION OPENING UP WELL BEFORE THEN...AND DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 23.0N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 23.9N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 24.9N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1800Z 26.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:13 UTC