ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011 A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DORA HAS REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT AND 44 KT ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT. THE CYCLONE IS STILL PRODUCING CONVECTION...MOST NOTABLY IN A NARROW BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT... ESPECIALLY FROM 48-96 HR WHEN IT APPEARS THE REMNANT TROUGH COULD COME CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS. DORA IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE LIFE OF THE CYCLONE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DECREASE TO 19C BY 72 HR...AND THUS DORA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HR. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN 72-96 HR...SO THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 21.7N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 22.4N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 23.5N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0600Z 24.6N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z 25.4N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 27.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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