ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011 CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO NORTHERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE. AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 0516Z ALSO INDICATED THAT 34-KT WINDS HAVE RETRACTED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF DORA IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/8...AND LEANS HEAVILY TOWARD MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. DORA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW...AND BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE RECENT RAPID DEMISE OF CONVECTION ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION SUGGESTS THAT DORA IS NOT LONG FOR THIS WORLD. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR AND STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKES IT TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN DORA MOVING OVER COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 23C...WHICH WILL FURTHER ACT TO ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS. AS A RESULT...DORA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. GIVEN THE RECENT AND EXPECTED RAPID WEAKENING OF DORA...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 20.9N 111.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 21.6N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 22.7N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1800Z 23.8N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0600Z 24.8N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 26.2N 117.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:13 UTC