ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2011 A FEW HOURS AGO...THE EYE OF DORA ABRUPTLY DISAPPEARED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND DEEP CONVECTION BECAME MUCH LESS SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE CENTER. THIS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 5.5 AND 6.5 RESPECTIVELY FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. USING A BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS GIVES A RATHER UNCERTAIN WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 110 KT. THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE SST GRADIENT AND IS HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS...ALTHOUGH IT IS CURRENTLY OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. SOME OF THE WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. AN EVEN MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE AS SOON AS DORA TRAVERSES MUCH COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL...LGEM...GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION...315/8...IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. DORA IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THIS REGIME IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS RATHER SMALL SHIFT IN THE NHC TRACK NOW TAKES DORA NEAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THAT AREA. CONSEQUENTLY..THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 18.3N 108.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 20.0N 110.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 21.1N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z 26.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z 27.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:13 UTC