ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011 DORA IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE OCCASIONALLY SHOWED AN EYE TRYING TO FORM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES ANY INNER CORE REMAIN DISORGANIZED. SINCE THERE ARE NO ESTIMATES OF THIS SYSTEM AS A HURRICANE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THERE IS PLENTY OF HIGH SSTS AND LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS IN ITS PATH. RAPID INTENSIFICATION REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY... ESPECIALLY IF THE INNER CORE CAN BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST REMAINS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL MODEL PREDICTION. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...DORA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATER...AND A RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF DORA WAS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...RESULTING IN AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/15...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BASICALLY MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK MODELS IS VERY SMALL DURING THAT TIME AS THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND A RIDGE OVER NORTH AMERICA REMAIN STRONG. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS...UKMET AND HWRF...SHOW DORA AS A THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE LONG RANGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO THE CENTER REPOSITIONING...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LONG RANGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES SUGGEST SOME CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS DORA PASSES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CENTER WELL OFFSHORE...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 12.8N 98.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 13.7N 100.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 14.9N 103.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 16.1N 105.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 17.1N 106.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 19.1N 109.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 21.0N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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