ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2011 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CALVIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN QUICKLY...WITH THE CENTER NOW EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF A DIMINISHING AREA OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT USING A BLEND OF DVORAK CI AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A 1745 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED A SMALL PATCH OF 35-40 KT WINDS EAST OF THE CENTER. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS CALVIN BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY TOMORROW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS...BUT COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. AS CALVIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...IT WILL BE STEERED GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER ADJUSTING FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON 09/1734Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.4N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.8N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.3N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 18.8N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 19.3N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:12 UTC