ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011 200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW LOCATED NEAR OR UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE OVERCAST. THE OUTFLOW HAS ALSO EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH...WEST...AND NORTH. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND BASED ON THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. I PREFER TO WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION AND HIGHER T-NUMBERS TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD WATER SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE IN PLACE...SUGGESTING A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT INDICATED BY THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR...THE LATEST CONSENSUS SHOWS A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW OVER COLD WATERS BY THEN...AND MOST LIKELY WILL MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 15.4N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 16.0N 104.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 16.8N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 17.5N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:12 UTC