ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 800 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011 RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN 360 DEGREES AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON...THIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WARRANTS AN UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS. IF THE CENTER DOES NOT CROSS THE COAST...THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERMIT SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO...HOWEVER...IS FOR BEATRIZ TO MOVE INLAND...IN WHICH CASE CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO WOULD BE LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST PRESUMES THE FORMER SCENARIO AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL SUBSTANTIALLY SO RAPID WEAKENING IS INDICATED BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEATRIZ HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER THIS EVENING AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TRACK SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE LEFT. BY DAY 4...THE WEAKENED CYCLONE WILL LIKELY MOVE WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TRACKS...AND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 18.0N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 18.6N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 19.5N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 20.0N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 20.2N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 20.5N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 20.5N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:12 UTC