ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2011 ADRIAN IS ESSENTIALLY A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXCEPT FOR A FEW TRANSIENT PUFFS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE ADRIAN HAS LARGELY BEEN DEVOID OF CONVECTION FOR A WHILE NOW...IT NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...BASED UPON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND THE STILL VIGOROUS APPEARANCE OF THE CIRCULATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS ADRIAN IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST DISSIPATION WITHIN 24-48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10 AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ADRIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATING AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. SINCE THE MODELS FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT ASSUME A STRONGER SYSTEM WHEN ADRIAN IS ALREADY A SHALLOW CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS WHICH WEAKEN ADRIAN FASTER. THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON ADRIAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 16.5N 115.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 13/0000Z 17.1N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1200Z 17.8N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0000Z 18.7N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:11 UTC