ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2011 ADRIAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DIMINISHED AROUND 0400 UTC...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW MAINLY CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC REVEALED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 35 KT...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING HAS LIKELY OCCURRED SINCE THAT TIME. THEREFORE...ADRIAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER 25 C WATERS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE COOL WATERS...A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE ADRIAN TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. ADRIAN IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SEVERAL OF THE TRACK MODELS INSIST ON TAKING THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANTS... NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW IN NATURE...A NORTHWARD TRACK APPEARS UNREASONABLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FAR LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 16.1N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/0600Z 17.2N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1800Z 18.0N 117.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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