ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011 ADRIAN IS WEAKENING AS FAST AS IT INTENSIFIED...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RAPIDLY DECAYING DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SINCE ADRIAN IS ALREADY AFFECTED BY STRONG SHEAR...SURROUNDED BY STABLE AIR...AND MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...IT COULD EASILY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR SOONER. SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER BETWEEN NOW AND DISSIPATION. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IN TWO DAYS...BUT BY THEN ADRIAN SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 15.8N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 15.9N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1800Z 18.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:11 UTC