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HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0900 UTC FRI AUG 26 2011
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 7 13 24 36
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 15 21 20 28
TROPICAL STORM X 2 3 33 49 26 34
HURRICANE 99 98 97 46 17 30 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 5 18 17 29 13 18 2
HUR CAT 2 46 41 34 11 3 9 X
HUR CAT 3 44 33 37 5 1 3 X
HUR CAT 4 4 6 8 1 X 1 X
HUR CAT 5 1 1 1 X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 100KT 100KT 105KT 85KT 55KT 40KT 40KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20(31) X(31)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9)
MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) X(32)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 8(35) X(35)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12)
EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 4(43) X(43)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13)
BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 3(48) X(48)
AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15)
AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) 1(53) X(53)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18)
PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) X(57) X(57)
CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19)
CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 59(62) 1(63) X(63)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26)
BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 55(59) X(59) X(59)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 50(55) 1(56) X(56)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 58(65) 1(66) X(66)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 57(67) X(67) X(67)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27)
HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 54(68) 1(69) X(69)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 43(69) X(69) X(69)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26)
NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 39(63) X(63) X(63)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22)
NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 27(58) 1(59) X(59)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) X(18)
TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 14(14) 36(50) 23(73) X(73) X(73)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) X(29) X(29)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 15(15) 23(38) 6(44) X(44) X(44)
BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 21(21) 33(54) 12(66) X(66) X(66)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20)
DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 20(20) 25(45) 6(51) X(51) X(51)
ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 20(20) 20(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44)
WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 38(39) 40(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 7(42) X(42) X(42)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16)
RICHMOND VA 34 X 7( 7) 43(50) 16(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67)
RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X 16(16) 58(74) 15(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) 30(30) 26(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) 10(10) 17(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 19(19) 59(78) 14(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 34(34) 26(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) 13(13) 18(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X 8( 8) 14(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
RALEIGH NC 34 1 21(22) 31(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
RALEIGH NC 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 6 57(63) 34(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 9( 9) 74(83) 4(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 1( 1) 59(60) 8(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 19 67(86) 12(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 34(34) 52(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 10(10) 57(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
WILMINGTON NC 34 24 61(85) 7(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X 30(30) 24(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X 8( 8) 16(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
COLUMBIA SC 34 4 8(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 26 46(72) 4(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 1 13(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CHARLESTON SC 34 17 22(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
CHARLESTON SC 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AUGUSTA GA 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SAVANNAH GA 34 6 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
MAYPORT NS 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
JACKSONVILLE 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ORLANDO FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PATRICK AFB 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:51 UTC