ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPOSED NEARLY 100 N MI TO THE EAST OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DROPPED TO T1.0 AND T1.5... RESPECTIVELY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE CONVECTION WAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER...ONLY SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND CONTINUES TO CONTEND WITH 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION HAS TAKEN A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND A SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/5. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING...IT SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE TRACKS OF BAMS AND BAMM...BUT A LITTLE BIT SLOWER AS INDICATED BY THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE RECENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS THE CONVECTION DIES OUT...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS...AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...UKMET ...ECMWF...AND GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 20.7N 110.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 21.4N 113.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 05/1200Z 21.8N 115.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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