ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010 800 PM PDT THU AUG 26 2010 FRANK HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY. THE EYE SEEN EARLIER IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AS THE SUN SET AND A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAS OPENED UP. BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS FRANK MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRANK HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/9. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE HURRICANE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THERE IS AN EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND AS SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONGER CYCLONE THAT MOVES FARTHER NORTHWARD. THE NHC FORECAST PREDICTS A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS AS FRANK IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM. AN AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SITE MAINTAINED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY ON SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 38 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 997.5 MB. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 18.2N 111.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 18.6N 112.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 19.2N 113.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 19.9N 114.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 20.7N 114.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 21.6N 114.3W 35 KT 96HR VT 31/0000Z 22.7N 114.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 01/0000Z 24.0N 114.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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