ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010 200 PM PDT THU AUG 26 2010 FRANK APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE TODAY. AN EYE HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED A BIT TO 80 KT. THE HURRICANE HAS RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...290/9...AND NOW LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS FORECAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STRENGTHENS NEAR THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE. NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...MOST HAVE A GRADUAL WEAKENING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN 15-20 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. FRANK IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26 DEGREES C IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT... SHOULD CAUSE A MORE RAPID WEAKENING BEYOND THAT TIME AND IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 18.1N 110.3W 80 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 111.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 112.9W 70 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 19.6N 113.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 28/1800Z 20.3N 114.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 29/1800Z 21.5N 114.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 30/1800Z 22.5N 114.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 31/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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