ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED AS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. BANDING FEATURES...HOWEVER...ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON THE SHIPS OUTPUT...THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LESS THAN 10 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUCH AS A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE CENTER IS NOT VERY EASY TO LOCATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/6. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NONE OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CENTER VERY CLOSE THE COAST OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A TRACK PARALLELING THE COAST...THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL TRACK CONSENSUS. IT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THIS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 13.7N 94.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 13.7N 95.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 13.8N 96.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 14.0N 98.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 14.3N 99.4W 60 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 15.4N 102.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 17.5N 107.0W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:33 UTC