ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 07 2010 A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER OF ESTELLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES ARE A LITTLE INCONCLUSIVE... A RECENT 1231 UTC SSMI PASS WAS QUITE USEFUL IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. CURRENT SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY CHANGE IN INTENSITY...SO THE INITIAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 45 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE TAKES ITS TOLL ON ESTELLE. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY LATE TOMORROW. THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO OF THE STORM TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IS NOT FAVORED AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY THE NOGAPS AND HWRF SHOWING THAT MOTION. THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE ESTELLE TO SLOW DRAMATICALLY IN THE LONG RANGE...AND THE CYCLONE COULD EVEN TURN EASTWARD AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS AS A REMNANT LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 17.1N 107.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 17.3N 108.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 17.7N 110.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 17.9N 111.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 112.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 17.8N 114.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 12/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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