ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010 STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISTORT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DARBY...WITH ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO DROP...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS A STRONG BURST OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES TO THE EAST OF DARBY IMPACTS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE DARBY IS SUCH A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ...IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND SUCH HIGH SHEAR...AND IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD AND IS NEAR...BUT A LITTLE LOWER THAN...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0854 UTC WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL FOR FINDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. NOW THAT DARBY IS WEAKENING...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE STORM WILL EVENTUALLY BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD AS IT IS SWEPT UP BY A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS WORTH REPEATING THAT WHATEVER REMAINS OF DARBY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 13.7N 103.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 13.8N 102.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 14.2N 102.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 14.6N 100.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 99.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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