ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010 800 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010 DARBY IS A SMALL HURRICANE WITH A TINY EYE WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO APPEAR INTERMITTENTLY ON IR IMAGES. T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 AND 5.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY AND BASED ON THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KNOTS. DARBY COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE THE SHEAR HITS THE CYCLONE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE GRADUAL. DARBY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN TRACK AND CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND DARBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY OR MEANDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.2N 100.0W 80 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 13.5N 101.0W 80 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 13.7N 102.0W 85 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 13.8N 103.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 13.9N 103.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 14.0N 103.8W 70 KT 96HR VT 29/0000Z 14.4N 103.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 30/0000Z 14.8N 103.3W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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