ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CELIA HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW COLD TOPS REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. SINCE CELIA WILL REMAIN OVER WATERS AROUND 25C AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS...A GRADUAL SPINDOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IS EXPECTED IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM. THE BEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/04...A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY MONDAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THE NHC FORECAST TAKES CELIA SLOWLY WESTWARD PRIOR TO DISSIPATION...AND IS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.7N 124.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.6N 124.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 15.6N 124.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 15.6N 124.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 29/1800Z 15.6N 124.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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