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Hurricane CELIA (Text)

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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010
 
CELIA HAS MOVED OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 25C...AND ITS SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EYE HAVE COOLED FROM ABOUT -16C TO
-34C...AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CANOPY HAS SHRUNK.  DVORAK
ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 90 KT AND 77 KT...
RESPECTIVELY.  THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.4/4.9...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE FT AND CI NUMBERS.  QUICK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
CELIA STAYS OVER COOL WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS
NORTHWEST.  LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM...AND NOW WEAKENS THE CYCLONE TO A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE THE REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAINTAINS A POSITION AT THAT TIME UNTIL MORE OF THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON THIS SOLUTION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DECELERATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY
BY DAY 3...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH WEAKENS AND IS
REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE REMNANT LOW WILL THEN BE
DRIVEN SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE
TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 15.3N 120.7W    85 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.7N 121.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 16.0N 123.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 16.2N 124.1W    40 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 16.3N 124.7W    30 KT
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 16.4N 125.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N 126.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     01/0600Z 16.5N 127.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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