ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 0907 UTC AMSR-E AQUA-1 OVERPASS SHOW THAT CELIA HAS A WELL DEFINED 20 N MI EYE SURROUNDED BY A VERY SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS SHOWING SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR HURRICANE. THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOME THIS MORNING...AND IT APPEARS THAT CELIA HAS COMMENCED ITS EXPECTED WEAKENING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 130 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 130 KT AND AN 0900 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 135 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. SUBSEQUENTLY...CELIA IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS...AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 5 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/11. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SHOULD REMAIN INTACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE CELIA TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY MOVE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 13.8N 118.1W 130 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W 115 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.3N 121.2W 95 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 122.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.2N 123.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 30/1200Z 16.5N 127.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:29 UTC