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Hurricane CELIA (Text)

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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010

CELIA IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE THIS MORNING...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED 15-20 N MI WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CLOSED EYEWALL WITH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF -75C TO -80C.  THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN 140 KT.  THAT WILL BE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CELIA CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. 
AFTER THAT THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE U. S. WEST COAST.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CAUSE CELIA TO SLOW ITS
FORWARD MOTION...WITH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOWING THE CYCLONE
MOVING LITTLE AT DAYS 4-5.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO AND IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE
TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA...TVCN...AND TVCC CONSENSUS MODELS.

IT IS LIKELY THAT CELIA HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THUS...A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY AS SHOWN IN ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.  CELIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
IN 24-36 HR...BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-60 HR...AND DECAY TO A
REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 13.4N 117.0W   140 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 14.1N 118.6W   130 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 14.9N 120.4W   105 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W    80 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 16.1N 123.1W    65 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 16.5N 124.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N 126.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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