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Hurricane CELIA (Text)

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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF CELIA HAS TRANSITIONED FROM A CDO TO A
BANDING PATTERN TODAY. OVERALL...THE SATELLITE STRUCTURE APPEARS TO
HAVE DEGRADED SLIGHTLY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS SOLID. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
SIGNS AS TO WHY THE CYCLONE SHOULD NOT EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN.
EASTERLY SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY INHIBITING AND THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THE
LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY..THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BELOW THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... IT CONTINUES TO
SHOW CELIA NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE DAYS...WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
CELIA REMAINS ON A WESTWARD HEADING OR 275/8 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  CELIA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE...BUT IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCN CONSENSUS.  HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS NOT AS SLOW AS THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH CONTINUES TO
INSIST ON A WEAKER RIDGE THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IN A
FEW DAYS. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE
HURRICANE IN THAT MODEL.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 11.8N 106.3W    85 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 11.9N 107.7W    90 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 12.1N 109.8W    95 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 12.4N 112.1W   100 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 12.9N 114.3W   100 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 14.4N 118.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 15.5N 122.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N 125.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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