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Tropical Storm CELIA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF CELIA DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AROUND 3.5 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A EYE
BEGINNING TO FORM WITHIN THE CDO...BUT BOTH THE SHIPS AND UW-CIMMS
ANALYZE ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AND IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED A LITTLE EAST OR
NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  

THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR TO GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER CELIA IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHOWING GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF NEAR 100 KT IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.  SOME
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAY 5...AS CELIA WILL LIKELY BE 
APPROACHING COOLER WATERS BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ONLY THE
GFDN SHOWS CELIA REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN 36 HOURS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/07.  CELIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.  BEYOND THAT
TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ALONG 125W BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY ALLOW CELIA TO TURN MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...EXCLUDING
THE GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 11.9N 100.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 11.7N 101.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 11.6N 102.3W    75 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 11.7N 103.4W    80 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 11.8N 104.7W    85 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 12.3N 107.8W    95 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 13.5N 111.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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