ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 530 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND A LARGE BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN A 19/0805Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE ONLY T1.0/25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY THAN THE RECENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/05 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE CYCLONE IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MASSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MORE LOWER LATITUDE AND SLOWER ECMWF FORECAST TRACK. AS A RESULT OF THE WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE RECENT AMSR-E OVERPASS REVEALED A CLOSED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH A NEARLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE 89-GHZ CHANNEL. BASED ON THIS IMPROVED VERTICAL STRUCTURE...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN ORDER FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLOSER TO THE HWRF AND GFDL...WHICH MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE SHIPS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MUCH FASTER MEDIUM BAM MODEL TRACK WHICH BRINGS THIS CYCLONE OVER COLDER WATER AND INTO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS MUCH SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1230Z 12.8N 97.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 12.6N 97.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 12.5N 99.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 12.5N 100.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 12.5N 102.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 12.5N 104.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 12.5N 106.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 13.0N 108.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN NNNN
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