ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010 BLAS HAS A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION BUT THERE ARE NO BANDING FEATURES. BLENDING DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS A WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT...THE STORM IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS. BLAS IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS OR LESS AND THEN BE REDUCED TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/10. THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLAS SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED AS THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WIND FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 17.6N 113.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 17.9N 114.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 18.1N 116.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 18.1N 118.8W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 22/1200Z 17.9N 120.8W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 23/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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